Washington, Oct. 9: In the White House, the state department and in the Pentagon, they all hope it is a bad dream that will recede into mere memory the morning after.

But those here who know Pakistan’s history, those who have manipulated successive military chiefs in Rawalpindi and civilian rulers in Islamabad tell the men and women in charge of American foreign policy today that it is simply not to be.

As Pakistan goes to polls tomorrow, what they do not comprehend here is why General Pervez Musharraf has not learned the lessons of history.

Four decades ago, another military ruler went through the same exercise. But Field Marshal Ayub Khan was more savvy. In the 1960s, as Ayub Khan dished out an equally farcical election, he saw the advantages of shedding his military fatigues and donning the mantle of chairmanship of the party he formed: the Convention Muslim League.

What worries those here who want the Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi to be an extension of the Pentagon is that Musharraf has, instead, chosen the route preferred by General Yahya Khan.

Unlike Musharraf, Yahya Khan conducted free and fair elections in 1970. Like Musharraf, he stayed out of party politics. The result was a National Assembly he could not control. With predictable consequences. Yahya Khan had to make way for others.

The worry in Washington is that even if the elections now produce a parliament obsequious to the chief of army staff, it may not remain so very long. Remember Nawaz Sharif? A creation of the army, he challenged the holy cows once he settled down as prime minister.

Any prime minister Musharraf appoints will eventually develop a spine. Belatedly, Musharraf has seen the dangers on the path he has chosen.

Hence the last-minute suggestion that all new members of the national and provincial assemblies will be sworn in under what is known as the “legal framework order”, a euphemism for the Musharraf constitution. Or at least under the provisional order that enabled Musharraf to assume the presidency.

The hope is that it will impede them from revolting as they will be bound by a system Musharraf has put in place.

But the constitution amendments Musharraf has promulgated make it impossible for any prime minister to function unless he is a quisling.

That is not all. The overbearing presence of the National Security Council — with its quota of generals — in decision-making will restrict even the new prime minister’s room for basic political manoeuvre.

Which means history could repeat itself in Pakistan and any prime minister Musharraf chooses will eventually clash with the President. ( )