The Future of India: Economics, politics and Governance
By Bimal Jalan,
Viking, Rs 350

There are three features of Jal an?s book that are quite striking. The first is that it is as eminently readable as the subject and title are weighty. Another feature is that for the first time in his prolific writings, Jalan has shifted his focus from stand-alone economics to the intersection of economics, politics and governance. The third feature is that messages are delivered with greater directness. In Arabic, it is said that when you want to shoot an arrow, first dip its point in honey. Throughout his very distinguished career, Jalan has epitomized this virtue. In this new book, the points of his arrows are sharper and the pot of honey in which they are dipped is shallower. Three quotes from the book will illustrate this: ?I am not at all confident that we will be able to fully seize the opportunities that are now available?taking these factors into account, my broad conclusion is that it is doubtful whether India will be able to achieve its full economic potential.?

?Individual ministers can take virtually all decisions affecting public enterprises or projects under their charge, but they cannot be held accountable for the outcome.?

?The insensitivity of the administrative system to the needs of the poor, even to prevent starvation, has been confirmed by first-hand surveys and reports by journalists and non-governmental organizations.?

There is considerable attention to the politicization of the Indian bureaucracy. He points to the arbitrary and questionable methods of appointments, promotions and transfers of officers by political superiors. He stresses on the need and the means to achieve greater independence of administration from politics. He bemoans the large disconnection of politics from economics and the virtual lack of accountability of the ministers for individual performance. Jalan?s commentary on corruption is realistic, but depressing.

Using P. Mauro?s econometric model and anecdotal evidence, he states, ?All things remaining the same, if there were no corruption, India?s growth rate would have been nearly eight percent in the 1980s and 1990s, rather than close to six percent.? This is an alarming, but probably, correct estimate of the implementation losses. So who suffers from this poor state of governance? The poor, says Jalan, because the government staff are the most callous and indifferent to them. How correct he is! Perhaps, a gap in Jalan?s arguments is that he refers little to the constructive role of the media. As K.N. Panikkar said in his Hindu Lecture, ?Informed interventions by institutions like the media have become exceptions rather than the rule, in contrast to the era of the national movement when such interventions contributed to the emergence, evolution and vitality of the public sphere.?

As you read, the question arises much as it did to the former prime minister, A.B. Vajpayee, after a professional presentation three years ago, ?Magar yeh sab hoga kaise?? Books like Arun Shourie?s Governance and the Sclerosis That Has Set In, Abraham George?s India Untouched ? The Forgotten Face of Rural Poverty or even Suketu Mehta?s Maximum City can impart a sense of hopelessness about our state. With regard to the connection between politics and economics in India, Jalan acknowledges the influence on him of Sunil Khilnani?s book, The Idea of India and Fareed Zakaria?s book, The Future of Freedom. Jalan describes their views on how to improve the system without destroying its benefits as leaving him with ?mixed feelings.? Jalan has his suggestions to offer, but one suspects that the reader, in his turn, could also well experience similar ?mixed feelings?.

There are two paradoxes that we face; first, while there is much that has worked less than well, there coexists incredible progress and change. The second paradox is that intellectually satisfying suggestions leave one with an impression of impracticality, and practical suggestions leave one with the sense of low conceptual content. To use the manager?s rather than the economist?s jargon, the solution lies not in analysis and strategy but in execution.

The Pulitzer-Prize-winning historian, Barbara Tuchman, wrote that self-interest is whatever contributes to the welfare or advantage of the body being governed; folly is a policy that is counter-productive to the interests of those being governed. Folly in individuals is tolerable, but folly in government has more impact on more people than individual folly. By these measures, Indian governance and politics are well on the path of folly. If assessing a situation in terms of preconceived notions while ignoring any contrary signs is wooden-headedness, we can safely conclude that it plays a remarkably large role.

However, this is true to varying degrees of most governments, ours being no exception. This is the only explanation for our situation with respect to infrastructure, power supply, agricultural subsidies and a host of other issues. For example, the impending power crisis in Maharashtra was there for everyone to see. Currently, there is a new crisis brewing. As one part of the government is planning for good growth in agriculture, the fertilizer ministry has still not finalized the import of diammonium phosphate or the raw materials for DAP manufacture ? and the supplies and world prices are both at risk. We are heading straight into a DAP availability crisis, but alas the affairs of Bihar are more pressing!

Notwithstanding all this, the future of India is bright, and most of us intuitively feel that way. The Keynesian doctrine that man will do the rational only after trying all other alternatives may be at work. The real point is not whether India has a bright future. The key question is can it not be brighter (and faster) than what it appears? And Jalan belongs to the tribe that says ?Absolutely? and that is what has motivated this son of India to present his thoughts for public discourse and debate. I believe the reader has good reasons to consider investing Rs 350 to buy this book and 175 minutes to read it.