New Delhi, Dec. 4: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will, in all probability, visit Pakistan in March 2007, a month before Delhi hosts the Saarc summit, well placed official sources said.

The response to the long-standing invitation from Islamabad is aimed at creating the necessary atmosphere for the April event. This will be Singh’s first visit to Pakistan as Prime Minister.

The trip has been planned and cancelled several times. The expectation that the visit would lead to a major settlement is the reason why it was put off for so long.

Nobody expects the Kashmir dispute to be resolved when the Prime Minister is in Islamabad. However, conflicts — that are long-standing but relatively easy to solve — like the one in Siachen and over the boundary demarcation in Sir Creek could be settled.

External affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Islamabad in January is expected to pave the ground for Singh’s sojourn. The minimum that can be expected during the Prime Minister’s trip is a settlement on Siachen, where India proposes to move one step at a time, while Pakistan is keen on an agreement at one go.

Singh has been holding meetings with the army’s top brass to understand how a settlement on Siachen would affect India’s security. He is apparently more and more convinced that India’s security will not be undermined if a demilitarised zone is created there with proper verification procedures in place.

There are apprehensions that such a scenario would help the Pakistan army take control of the passes on the Soltoro ridge to the west of the glacier (where Indian forces currently occupy all passes but one) within a few days, while it would take India weeks to reclaim them. But the argument does not hold much water as far as the Prime Minister is concerned.

He is convinced that the two sides must learn to trust each other. If the crunch comes and the Pakistanis do not honour their commitment to keep the region demilitarised, then like Kargil, the Indian Air Force can always be used to chase them away, an official pointed out.

As far as Sir Creek is concerned, the government believes it might be a good idea to build confidence by demarcating the boundary from the Exclusive Economic Zone limits of 200 nautical miles towards the shore, and leave the contentious marshes and coastal water undefined for the moment if there are technical problems associated with them.

Some have even talked of joint ventures with Pakistan for oil and gas exploration once the maritime boundary is more or less marked.

Singh is also believed to be thinking of joint consultative mechanisms in Kashmir on issues that affect both countries — for instance, environment and forests. Politically, he is believed to be keen that Islamabad begin by giving areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including Gilgit and Baltistan, the same autonomy that is available to Kashmiris on the Indian side.

However, as of now, it seems a more comprehensive settlement on the Valley will have to wait while other confidence-building measures, including a Siachen resolution, are implemented.