Bahraich, April 22: Mulayam Singh Yadav is staring at big cracks in the Muslim-Kurmi axis for tomorrow’s polls to 57 seats in 10 Terai districts of Uttar Pradesh.

The focus, though, will be on Lakhimpur-Kheri, Bahraich and Gonda where the election is mostly about the challenge from Beni Prasad Verma, a Kurmi heavyweight who fell out with Mulayam.

The departure of Verma, who launched the Samajwadi Kranti Dal last month, reminds people of Nitish Kumar, who floated the Samta Party in 1995 after leaving Lalu Prasad and rupturing the post-Mandal backward caste alliance.

In many ways, Bahraich is where Mulayam’s poll permutation will unravel.

Verma has fielded Reshma Arif, wife of former Union minister Arif Mohammad Khan, who lost the 2004 Lok Sabha election as a BJP candidate. He had been elected as a Congress MP in the past.

Reshma is pitted against Waqar Ahmed Shah, a state minister whose clout as a Mulayam loyalist grew even as the position of Verma declined in the Samajwadi Party.

The Verma-Mulayam rift reached snapping point in February this year, when the chief minister refused to act against Shah for allegedly protecting the killers of Ram Bhulan, a Verma loyalist murdered on February 9.

Mulayam tried to mend fences, bringing Shah and Verma together at a rally of Kurmis in Lucknow last month. But days after the forced show of unity, Verma walked out.

Muslims make up 35 per cent of Bahraich’s voters and Kurmis 15 per cent.

The numbers in other Terai districts are not very different. The two groups have been with Mulayam, who won 31 of the 57 seats in the 2002 polls.

For others in the fray, the initial optimism from fissures in the Mulayam facade is giving way to cautious reassessment.

For the BJP, which won 14 seats in 2002 and has put up new faces this time, the loss in Mulayam’s votes should help its tally.

But the party is worried about Verma’s proximity to the Congress, apparently to forge an alliance of Kurmi, Muslim and upper-caste voters.

However, it hopes to get the support of those Hindus who might not like the presence of Khan in Verma’s camp.

In any case, Verma has promised support to the Congress in any post-poll combination forced by a hung House.

In recent days, his supporters have been seen mobilising crowds for the rallies of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul.

The BSP expects to gain from Mulayam’s problems, but is not sure of Muslims, many of whom could vote for the Congress.

It had won only nine seats in the last polls, but had fared well in the 2004 general elections, having wrested Basti, Khalilabad and Sidharthnagar from the Samajwadi Party.

If the sway holds, the BSP expects to win at least 12 of the 15 seats in the three Lok Sabha constituencies.

The Congress had only two seats in 2002, one of the winners being former state president Jagadambika Pal.

However, the backward caste leader from Basti was marginalised in a party reshuffle. This might hurt the Congress.