The final round of the French presidential elections will be a classic duel. The 12 original candidates have been pared down to two. The opinion polls favour Mr Nicolas Sarkozy. Former interior minister, politically centre-right, and son of a Hungarian émigré father, Mr Sarkozy will be remembered here for not having liked Mr Lakshmi Mittal taking over Arcelor. His opponent, if she wins, would be France’s first female head of state. Ms Ségolène Royal, mother of four, combines reconstructed socialism with Parisian chic. Even her public evasions and gaffes have become part of her charm. Her official supporters’ blog is called Ségosphère. After more than two wearying decades of Messrs Mitterrand and Chiraq, it must be heartening for the French that Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal are both in their early fifties. In the first round, Mr Sarkozy’s score of 31.18 per cent was the highest for any rightwinger in three decades, and Ms Royal’s 25.87 per cent the highest for a leftwinger since 1988. The 84 per cent turnout was the highest since 1965. The French obviously think that these elections are crucial for dispelling the gloomy, restless feeling that their country was not really going anywhere.

The real fun of the next few days would, however, be watching how the votes that went to the other, eliminated candidates would be fought over by the two finalists. The “third man” here — some have even started calling him the “king/queen-maker” — is the centre-right, part-time farmer, Mr François Bayrou. (The far-right Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen, France’s home-grown fascist, has fortunately fallen out of the race.) Around seven million people had voted for Mr Bayrou, and they have now become all-important. Mr Bayrou has not yet declared his leanings towards either, and has plans for a “third party”. The French economy is on the decline, unemployment is growing alarmingly, and there is no reason to believe that the 2005 riots in the banlieues will not happen again. Immigration policy, foreign policy (especially relations with President Bush), and alignments with the European Union (attitudes to Turkey being the main point of difference here) are the key issues in France now. What the French are impatient for is the right kind of dynamism that would break their sense of a Socialist impasse. The battle will be over the centre, and if Mr Sarkozy does not sound too much like Mr Le Pen in the next few days, then France may not have a beautiful woman as its president this time.