New Delhi, Sept. 2: Any delay in successful completion of the Indo-US nuclear deal will stymie India’s plans to add more power from the atom into the national electricity grid in the next eight years, experts have said.

However, long-term energy security through nuclear power is decades away and will require development of new reactors.

The Nuclear Power Corporation (NPC) hopes to add 3,160MW to the existing 4,120MW of installed nuclear capacity in the next five years through reactors under construction in Kudankulam (Tamil Nadu), Kaiga (Karnataka), and Rawatbhata (Rajasthan). But imported light water reactors (LWR) could deliver an extra 2,000MW to 3,200MW by 2014, senior NPC officials said.

In preparation for a post-deal era in which India can engage in nuclear commerce, the NPC has been evaluating options of light water reactors that may be available from France, Russia and the US.

“We are assuming everything will fall into place and construction of the imported LWRs can begin by 2009,” an official said. “The first new pair of LWRs could be ready for operation by 2014 or early 2015.”

The department of atomic energy has proposed an installed nuclear power capacity of 9,935MW by 2012, and 12,000MW by 2014, which is likely to be achieved only through a mix of indigenous pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWR) and imported light water reactors.

All these reactors will require uranium fuel, which is in short supply in India. The deal and planned negotiations with Nuclear Suppliers Group countries would allow India to import reactors as well as uranium.

The largest of the home-grown heavy water reactors, located at Tarapur (Maharashtra), has the capacity to generate only 540MW. The light water reactors in comparison are behemoths — with the largest rated for 1,600MW.

India’s first commercial nuclear reactors were the US-made Tarapur units 1 and 2 that began operations in 1969. Subsequent growth was slow because scientists had to work in an environment of “technology denial” after the 1974 explosion.

Nuclear power experts argue that the electricity available from equivalent installed capacities would be higher from nuclear power plants than from either hydroelectric or wind power stations.

A nuclear power plant can work at 90 per cent capacity while a wind station may work only at 35 per cent. “This would make 1,000MW nuclear equivalent to about 3,000MW wind,” an NPC official said.

The NPC is in a position to start work simultaneously at more than one site. A selection committee has identified candidate sites for nuclear stations at coastal locations in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bengal, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh.

But scientists caution that long-term energy security will not come from today’s uranium-based fission reactors.

The world’s uranium reserves are limited and it will become too expensive within 40 years, a scientist at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre said.

One option is advanced reactors that will convert thorium — an element far more abundant than uranium — into fissile material for use in fission reactors.

Another long-term energy goal is nuclear fusion, which can deliver three or four times more energy than that available through fission.