A voter waits outside a polling station as a soldier stands guard. (Reuters)

Islamabad, Feb. 18: Pakistan went half-heartedly to the polls today, riven by fears of bloodshed and high on cynicism over what these elections might achieve.

The day was spared any major devastation — there were sporadic armed clashes and a cascade of malpractice complaints — but turnout peaked at an all-time low of about 37 per cent and sceptics forecast greater political turmoil even as President Pervez Musharraf scoffed at them and assured the willing of an honest mandate.

“The world is watching this election, I do not understand where this talk of rigging and wrongdoing is coming from,” he said soon after casting his vote this morning.

His adversaries remained circumspect, though. “We’ll only know when the ballot has been counted whether this has been a free exercise,” a PPP leader said. “The national mood is strongly against Pervez Musharraf, that should be reflected in the results.”

Former Premier and PML (N) leader Nawaz Sharif spoke in similar vein, saying the campaign had left him in “no doubt” about the defeat of the Musharraf-backed PML(Q) alliance.

He added in the same breath that the Musharraf establishment was “determined” to rig the polls and craft an “anti-people” victory. It is very likely the Opposition will cry foul if it is not able to secure a decisive victory.

We drove along the Grand Trunk road from Lahore to Islamabad this morning, through Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum and Rawalpindi, and saw a rainbow mood that ranged from indifference to festive participation.

Gujrat and Rawalpindi thronged with voters, many of them bivouacked around polling booths in the mild sun; Jhelum was markedly quiet.

Reports have turned in of abysmally low turnouts in the terror-ridden frontier province and, unexpectedly, in southern Punjab.

Preliminary results began rolling in late evening, and along with it came fresh spews of uncertainty over the shape and stability of the new National Assembly. “Though all major parties are claiming a clear lead, nobody is likely to get a majority,” said a newspaper editor. “The only thing that appears certain to me is that things are going to be very muddy. The real game begins tomorrow.”

As security forces stepped up guard along Islamabad’s spanking avenues at a shivered sundown, a nervous surcharge gripped the political backrooms.

Most claimants to power, the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif included, headed for the capital where they must begin jostling for upmanship tomorrow on.

Nobody quite knows how the dice will turn, but there is no dearth of speculation this cold night in Islamabad.

If Musharraf’s opponents manage enough seats they could take their war a step further and seek to impeach him. But will he be such easy meat? He enjoys residuary powers as President; he could invoke the controversial Article 58 (2) and dismiss the new government forthwith; that’s not been tough for Presidents to do in Pakistan.

Farooq Ahmed Leghari bundled Benazir Bhutto out of power on the basis of press clippings alleging corruption.

“Whatever happens,” said a retired army general who has served under the President, “Musharraf will fight back, he hasn’t come this far to sit and watch himself be impeached.”

What if the king’s party takes the assembly? the opposition might take to the streets and plunge Pakistan into chaos. And what then? The President will strike back, just as he did with the long and now-suspended lawyers’ agitation. Chaos again.

But the most engrossing possibilities emerge from probably the most widely predicted result -- a hung parliament.

Will Zardari sup with the President despite having run on a stridently anti-Musharraf ticket? Will Nawaz get enough numbers to join hands with Zardari and outsmart Musharraf? Is there a chance he will himself cut a deal with the President? Despite having been deposed and handcuffed in Arcot jail by the man? Despite being sent into exile? Despite having been prevented from returning home?

Possible, insist those initiated in the ways of Pakistan’s power politics, don’t rule anything out.

“Each of these people has colluded for convenience in the past,” said a senior government official. “Forget electoral rhetoric, that is over now. Power is the prize now and you can expect people to do strange things in order to get there. Both the PPP and Sharif have been out of power for too long, both are desperate, they can clinch desperate deals, doesn’t matter who with.”

He spoke sarcastically of “national reconciliation”, a sentiment that’s suddenly become popular among the contestants this evening. “Everybody knows what the meaning of national reconciliation is: licence to go to bed with the enemy as long as the union proffers power.”

The players of the election will probably argue why not; power, after all, is what this has been all about.