Bangalore, May 9: Assembly polls kick off in Karnataka tomorrow, with a majority of the constituencies in the first phase likely to see a straight fight between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular).

The BJP is expected to be a player in the urban seats and the two in the hills of Coorg.

The Bahujan Samaj Party is trying to make its presence felt in Dalit constituencies, but party chief Mayavati is yet to register on the voters’ minds.

Trends in the first round are likely to be decisive because it covers the largest number of seats — 89 of 224. The second and third phases cover 66 and 69, respectively.

Observers say the outcome will, therefore, largely determine the kind of government Karnataka will get — a coalition, with the Dal (S) playing kingmaker again, or single-party rule.

The seats are in southern Karnataka, and span the areas around Bangalore that border Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Goa.

The old Mysore region, as it was once called, is a stronghold of the Dal (S) — a party neither the BJP nor the Congress can write off despite their fond wish that this time H.D. Deve Gowda and his sons be relegated to the margins and the state usher in single-party rule.

The main reason why the Dal (S) appears to be holding its own in Tumkur, Bangalore (rural), Ramanagaram, Kanakpura, Mandya, Hassan and Mysore is not Deve Gowda but his son, H.D. Kumaraswamy, who ruled as chief minister for 20 months with the BJP’s support.

Reviled by Bangalore’s chattering classes, Kumaraswamy is hailed by the villages outside the capital as a “harbinger of development and prosperity” and a “messiah of the farmers and the poor”.

“He is young, has shown he is a good administrator and was capable of controlling his MLAs when the BJP tried to break them away,” said Kale Gowda, a farmer at Manuganahalli in Hunsur constituency.

The Dal (S)’s core Vokkaliga caste support base remains intact. In places where it looks to be a sure winner, even Dalits and Muslims are rooting for the party.

The Dalits cite its advocacy and implementation of reservations at all levels as their motivation. The Muslims argue that though Kumaraswamy had partnered the BJP, like Mayavati (she thrice teamed up with the BJP in Uttar Pradesh), he ran the arrangement on “his terms” and not theirs.

Although the Congress has not projected a face, the induction of Siddaramaiah might help it wean away some Dal (S) votes. He is from the Kuruba backward caste of shepherds, who have 9 per cent votes.

Siddaramaiah’s presence in Gowda’s party in the 2004 elections had ensured that the Dal (S) made a clean sweep of the Mysore, Tumkur and Hassan regions where Kuruba votes count. “Siddaramaiah’s entry has been the turning point for the Congress,” said B.K. Hari Prasad, a general secretary.

The Congress’s one-time poster boy, S.M. Krishna, has not made an impact in the rural areas.

The BJP’s best bet lies in the redrawn map of Karnataka. After delimitation, the number of urban seats has increased. In Bangalore, for instance, it is up from 12 to 28.

S. Yeddyurappa, the party’s chief ministerial candidate, is seen as a leader of the Lingayats. But the Lingayats are barely significant the first phase.