As the world awaits the fate of Iraq, it appears that policy-makers, both in Europe and in India, are failing to address the full range of motives underlying American plans to unseat Saddam Hussein. Despite the United States of America’s attempts to portray the growing confrontation with the Iraqi strongman as one of disarming a dangerous dictator with an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, it is becoming apparent that at stake in this unfolding crisis is control over the world’s oil supply.

Indeed, observers of the global politics of oil may be forgiven for believing that the current American designs on Iraq have been three years in the making. During this time, the US has been consistently reducing its dependence on oil from west Asia and diversifying its supplies. One option it has explored is to tap the pools of oil and natural gas within its own territory, far north in Alaska. However, drilling, laying pipelines and building storage facilities will threaten the fragile ecosystem of the region, which is one reason George W. Bush has refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol despite Bill Clinton’s commitment to do so. A more telling development has been the recent opening of a pipeline running through Georgia and Turkey (trusted allies of the Americans), and circumventing Iran, which will finally secure American access to central Asian oil.

With ample oil already in storage, and now possessing alternative sources of supplies, the US can attack Iraq with little risk to its own economy. In both the European Union and India however, the outbreak of hostilities in the region, and the prospects of an American victory in Iraq pose problems which, astonishingly, have barely been raised or addressed by the political leadership.

Should war be declared, as seems likely given the US’s belligerent posturing despite Iraq’s willingness to comply with United Nations resolutions, the supply of oil to India will be affected. This may result in a serious energy shortage, since about 65 per cent of our oil comes from west Asia causing economic recession or inflation. The EU, with additional supplies from the North Sea, Venezuela, Russia and Nigeria, is less dependent on west Asia and also has significant reserves of oil which should see it through a limited war in the Gulf.

Sadly, this has created a sense of security that is unfounded and is preventing the EU from acting more decisively against Washington’s war-mongers, and safeguarding its own economic interests. For, should global oil prices rise too sharply, its trade relations with India and China, the EU’s largest trading partners in Asia, will be seriously affected. There might be a decline in EU exports to the two countries and lucrative contracts for European companies in fields ranging from transportation and infrastructure to joint ventures in the heavy metals industry might be jeopardized.

Unfortunately, the current ideological bickering within the EU over how best to deal with Hussein is also obscuring the need to forge a common response on matters of energy security in view of a potential conflict in west Asia.

This is all the more surprising since the Europeans seem aware that a change of regime in Iraq is likely to shift the balance of global oil politics in favour of the US. Enrique Baron Crespo, who recently led a delegation of European parliamentarians to India, expressed dismay at American indications that those who do not support its initiatives against Iraq would not get the spoils of war — that is, access to Iraqi oil.

Indeed, American rhetoric about doing the world a favour by ridding it of Hussein does little to veil its ambitions of challenging the hegemony of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. An American victory would give it control over Iraqi oilfields, the most important in the region after those of Saudi Arabia. And with a friendly government in place in Afghanistan, the US may have an important say in how and to whom oil from west and central Asia is to be distributed. In addition to the political leverage this would provide the US for at least another 25 years, the time it would take to develop alternative fuel sources, American petrol companies would stand to bag plum exploration, drilling and oil distribution contracts at the expense of their European competitors. No small achievement for Bush, who began his career as a Texan oil man.

For India, such a scenario would perhaps be worse than having its oil supplies disrupted. American control of oil distribution would require India and other nations to further adapt to American economic imperatives and accept political demands that could compromise our sovereignty. But, instead of focusing on this very real menace, Jaswant Singh, caught up in the American war rhetoric, recently argued that “pre-emption” is the right of every nation.

The EU may not find itself in a state of energy dependence but its aspirations of emerging as a truly unified — and principled — global economic and political player could be frustrated if the Americans succeed in establishing significantly greater control over world oil.

It might not be too late for India and the EU to avert such a scenario or mitigate some of its affects. A joint statement condemning unilateral action against Iraq would be a good starting point. Substantively, the EU could, as a gesture of goodwill, offer India limited access to its oil reserves should a war in Iraq break out and our own supplies from west Asia are disrupted. Unfortunately, when asked at a press conference in New Delhi whether the EU would be prepared to do this, Crespo avoided a direct answer, referring rather to the Kyoto protocol and the need for alternative energy sources.

While his answer underscores European political ambivalence about how best to ride out the coming storm, it also indicates a key area of future cooperation. As the American politico-military juggernaut rolls on, India would do well to quickly reduce its dependence on conventional energy. Here, EU cooperation in establishing viable sources of renewable energy could help maintain our long-term economic health and sustain our trade with Europe. Already, European countries like Denmark and the Netherlands have been working on alternative energy projects in India with some success. If the EU, as a whole, were to expand and deepen the scale of this cooperation into a strategic partnership, American designs might be thwarted in spite of their possible success in Iraq.